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Never sell if you are underinvested. If you had 500k or so I’d consider trimming 20% now for the next 3 years, then wait for a bear market to buy back in. You can hide out in TLT while you wait.
My Christmas Rally port update: long NVDA, GOOG, INTC, TSLA, ORCL and TNA; short TLT, GLD and SLV.
How low can TLT go, I wonder? If foreign nations dump US treasuries, can it go to like 25? Might buy some puts dated like 1 year out at 75 or so if shtf they could print.
SPY green now but HYG and TLT still red 🚨
I just back tested my own trading logic,when sell QQQ, buy GLD or TLT and vice versa. QQQ&TLT combination gives 179% and QQQ&GLD gives 206% in 365 days. I did not mix two etfs or three etfs combined testing (not so much interested). Here are some results (formatted here https://imgur.com/jOLWKKr), …
Think of the bond market like a seesaw: when people dump treasuries, the immense supply forces prices down, which automatically pushes yields up. If the EU dumps, long-term bond funds (like TLT) would get absolutely hammered because they are stuck holding older, lower-paying paper that nobody wants anymore. SGOV is …
>Nasty game being played in the bond market? Bond market is behaving as usual - no play - based on demand and supply, now the yield curve becoming normal curve long end expects higher returns. Rest, it behaves same way it was behaving 5 eyars ago or 15 year ago. …
PYPL, UNH, TGT, PFE, UPS, TLT. Yes... I own a lot of all of them.
I have a core portfolio that I continue to DCA weekly into: US equities (40%) 10% BRKB 5% COF 5% MSFT 5% SPGI 5% V 10% VTI REITs (15%) 5% LAMR 5% O 5% VICI International (20%) 20% VXUS Bonds (25%) 10% SGOV 10% state specific munis 5% TLT I …
Big ass head and shoulders on TLT lmao
You sound extremely confident for someone trading TLT like it’s a meme stock... Just a quick reality check, alright... . Two rate cuts before March isn’t a forecast, it’s a kids fantasy... Even the Fed doesn’t project that path unless the economy shows recession-level weakness... If we actually get two …
TLT dropping and forming head and shoulders pattern on the three month. Unless the feds unzip their pants and fully load long term treasuries with money printing, looks like yields on the long end are about to spike! At some point those long term rates are going to snap the …
Im a TLT bull buuuut I could see a nasty shakeout before it moons. Thinking double top on the ten year so TLT could make its way back to the 82s
* VTI: 40% * KMLM: 20% * DBMF: 20% * GLDM: 10% * TLT: 10% Gets close to S&P returns with 1/3 the drawdown. https://testfol.io/?s=5lit5gboz6a
I am dumbfounded how bad streaming commercials are. Commercials used to be banging. [Free Credit Report* Dot Com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tloVHJtrJ_k) WTF happened to marketing? Positions TSLA, TLT, SPY
Listen up, chucklefucks. The pedo files are required by law to be released 12/19. War won't start UNTILL that week. RTX and ONDS calls for 12/26 PUTS on TLT and CALLS on GLD as oil, gold, and bond yields all about to go to Valhalla (i'm told this is in …
TLT down 0.69% today….long term yields going up. I’m curious to see what the treasury market does….if short term rates dump, and inflation expectations go up, that means long term rates go up. If deflationary death spiral then long term rates go down. If we money print our way to …
Congrats Boys. Unless you are posting from a psych ward, prison, the afterlife. You survived another holiday alone. I am proud of you. Everything is temporary. This too shall pass. Positions: TSLA, TLT, SPY
Everyone here is a gangsta MF warren buffet investing and trading god. Just because you got the knowledge now means squat shit. Everyone gangsta now when the markets and economy keep booming for the past 10 years. Even during the pandemic, everything still went up in the shortest time in …
TLT time
I was up 80% and sold and bought TLT. I wanted to short tech cause the AI bubble is getting extremely frothy, so I did this instead. Would be up 95% if I’d held but nobody ever went broke from taking profits. Or, as JP Morgan said, when asked how …
Glad I bought the dip for TLT last week. Funny how quickly the rate cut narrative flips.
If the fed is going to implement a yield curve control (with qe) you should go long TLT or IEF before it's priced in. (It's getting priced in...) You can also go long ZQ futures if not enough cuts are priced in. Obviously: don't buy things you don't understand.
You might as well yolo TLT calls Your risk reward is much better returns 100:1 I’m buying Jan 2026 $100 calls and may 2026 calls
If you think nominal rates are going to drop then you want to be long TLT…
True wall street boy you are! If you short TLT and buy SPY calls Jan 2026, easy way to blow your account !! Good luck !!!
The "Silent Default" Algo. Why the $40T debt is a feature, not a bug (and how we mimic 1945). Listen up. I see you bears posting loss porn and screaming about how the US is technically insolvent. You’re looking at the $40 Trillion debt clock and thinking "Game Over." You …
I had 7 accounts originally and during 2021 I went into options and blown one account to 20k, made some rules to improve and it is not appx 75k. After 2021, stopped margins, options and focussed only profits. Here are my rules, but may or may not fit for others. …
global index, emerging markets, healthcare and TLT
Observations: - BRK and GLD quietly outperform SPY across more periods than expected. - GLD is extremely effective at smoothing equity volatility and consistently receives high weight in Sharpe-max portfolios. - BRK offsets certain equity-driven shocks. For example, around the tariff news in April, BRK’s short run-up partially neutralized SPY’s …
Good confirmation for me too. Instead of shorting, Appx Oct end 2025, I came out of all bullish bets and moved completely to TLT, TMF holding long watching the market with fun. I did the same in Jan 2025 (TLT,TMF) and sold in Apr first week with almost 29% profit …
I was going to share a screenshot. Today I'm up 3% at this moment, barely up for the week, slightly negative for the month, up substantially on the 3 month timeframe and up 18.49% YTD. I'm sure those numbers will move a decent amount before the day is over. Last …
This is what I do with some of my money. The weird portfolio. [https://portfoliocharts.com/2023/05/08/the-striking-appeal-of-the-weird-portfolio/](https://portfoliocharts.com/2023/05/08/the-striking-appeal-of-the-weird-portfolio/) [https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/weird-portfolio/](https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/weird-portfolio/) It is pretty easy to implement with low fee ETFs like the below. For more info on the design the creator wrote a free ebook. [https://valuestockgeek.medium.com/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a](https://valuestockgeek.medium.com/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a) 20% VBR - US Small Cap Value 20% VSS …
I may be biased as I already moved everything to bonds. I did that exactly timed the market between Jan 2025 to April 2025 and gained 25% in my Roth when others lost money. I do my own analysis and I mind my own growth. Again this time, I am …
Newell Brands, aka the makers of Rubbermaid&Sharpie. They're heavily beaten down, were hit hard by tariffs, and I doubt there's too much room for them to fall further. Plus, I'm playing with house money. Average price targets imply a 70% upside in one year using Peter Lynch metrics, and they …
TLT and TMF !
FYI the government job report was for September and its 50/50 at best, private data from ADP for October released weeks ago wasn’t that great either. If you get market crash vibes at SPX shavin’ off 1.5pp, consider TLT or smth idk Expected positive news > sell offs due to …
And yet TLT is up, which pretty much disproves your theory. I don't know why markets tanked, but it wasn't nvidia, or jobs, or fed rate cuts. My best guess is it was Trump threatening to kill democrats... which comes on top of him telling a reporter "quiet piggy" and …
Can’t wait to see the complete destruction this bubble pop has on asset prices, energy prices; we are in for an insane reckoning that will lead to deflation and fed intervention. TLT all the way baby.
Sell this and go for TLT calls January 16 $100 strike price You won’t regret it 😉😉
I’d recommend the weird portfolio. [https://portfoliocharts.com/2023/05/08/the-striking-appeal-of-the-weird-portfolio/](https://portfoliocharts.com/2023/05/08/the-striking-appeal-of-the-weird-portfolio/) [https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/weird-portfolio/](https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/weird-portfolio/) It is pretty easy to implement with low fee ETFs like the below. For more info on the design the creator wrote a free ebook. [https://valuestockgeek.medium.com/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a](https://valuestockgeek.medium.com/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a) 20% VBR - US Small Cap Value 20% VSS - EX US Small Cap Value 10% SCHH …
JAAA maybe - historically it has been pretty safe - but there are some warning signs in private credit (eg the implosion of Tricolor) that would make me hesitant to use it replace SGOV. Maybe a partial allocation? I have also thought about making a small allocation to TLT which …
I hold TLT and TMF with 65% of my position, no other stocks or ETFs. Balance 35% cash only to DCA when TLT/TMF goes down from here.
TLT climbed with that pump, Vix is up 6%...we feeling good in bear land
Not liking that TLT technical. That's gotta be no bueno.
>I wonder, if it is possible to earn a good profit as a trader, like 30% - 40% per year? It is possible, but you need to follow only SPX or NDX etfs to trade (nothing else). I listed some of my rules and have something similar that fits you …
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