FCF - First Commonwealth Financial Corporation 0 WATCHERS

I loaded the boat on META AMZN TSLA during the panic the past couple of weeks. Those were my focus stocks for 2026 (alongside GOOGL and UNH which I already own). I entered into starter positions in RBRK and PATH (very small position honestly, they need to show growth accelerating …

Recommendations between 3 TSX stocks Hey fellow investors, I am wanting to expand my growth bucket and am looking into a couple stocks in the TSX. Right now, my growth bucket consists of **DOL, WCN, BAM** and **WSP**. **DOL** and **WSP** is pretty decent over time whereas **BAM** and **WCN** …

My 6 High-Conviction Plays for 2026: From Deep Value to GARP Compounders (PLMR, SKWD, MOH, LULU, FOUR, NU) I have seen some users complaining and a lot of posts about the same companies, so I wanted to share my top 6 value picks for 2026, hopefully at least a couple …

Not sure about the others, but MA is a wonderful business at a fair price right now. It's my 4th biggest position now. They're growing FCF very nicely. 30% YoY in TTM, and 30% CAGR over last 2 years. Their VAS is growing in the 20% range in revenue, and …

Main point: concentration works if you size it right and pre‑write your sell rules. I hold AAPL and AXP, skip BAC because I don’t want that much rate/credit cyclicality. My rules: cap any single name at 12–15%, rebalance on a ±25% drift, and pre‑plan trims if two key metrics break …

This is a volatile stock sure but it’s been falling since September. If you are buying it 2 weeks in after the big dip, you need to wait a lot more for this pay off. Especially since your breakeven price is +30% off. Price that far off is unreachable unless …

NTNX $20k YOLO Buy The Dip This is a dip that checks off my list. 1. The company took a beating after earnings report, dropping 18%. It had already dropped like 15% in the week before. Essentially it took a double beating 2. They dropped because they missed earnings. Leadership …

[DD] WIX: The Market Says "Dead Legacy Tech." The Math Says "Rule of 40" Cash Cow (9x EV/FCF). I've been screening for value in SaaS lately because everything feels expensive, and I kept ignoring **Wix (WIX)**. Like most of you, I still thought of them as that annoying legacy website …

Salesforce (CRM) just posted a solid Q3 FY26 Salesforce (CRM) just posted a solid Q3 FY26: * Revenue grew 9% YoY to $10.26B, driven by steady subscription momentum. * Non-GAAP operating margin hit 35.5%, showing continued discipline. * Free cash flow up 22% YoY to $2.2B — one of the …

My AI prompt for deep company analysis/understanding Hi all, I just wanted to share my prompt, which I use once I think I have found an interesting company. Just so you know, it is not specific to value investing - more to **quality** investing (I like the modern approach of …

Thoughts on GREGGS Ticker: GRG The beloved British bakery chain has been smashed over the last year -42.13% with general investor sentiment being that it has reached a limit on growth, evidenced by TTM revenue growing just 3% compared to an average of 18% for the previous 3 years. The …

EPS and FCF/share is on a continuous decline since 2018. EPS fallen about 65% and FCF/share about 52% since then, mainly due to margin compression. That's about -10% CAGR. So seems to be a slowly declining business. >$54 million consists of cash sitting there on the balance sheet, But why …

Help With Exercise - Global Dividend Names Wanted to share an exercise I thought was interesting, and ask if anyone knows any of these names well? I screened for **global large-caps paying >4% dividend yield that were either US listed, had US ADRs, or in countries where I can buy …

My take on $GOOGL at current price Thesis: High-quality business with durable competitive advantages trading at a reasonable price, now with improving capital allocation. Moat: Search dominance (90% share) and network effects. AI Infrastructure: Proprietary TPUs provide a cost/performance advantage over peers relying solely on Nvidia. Capital Return: Shift from …

My take on $GOOGL even after the recent run Thesis: High-quality business with durable competitive advantages trading at a reasonable price, now with improving capital allocation. Moat: Search dominance (90% share) and network effects. AI Infrastructure: Proprietary TPUs provide a cost/performance advantage over peers relying solely on Nvidia. Capital Return: …

-45% YoY quarterly revenue growth -139.61% Profit Margin -25.59% operating margin (ttm) -1.98B operating FCF these are just some things I noticed at a quick glance. it looks like they need a hail mary miracle at this point.

Buybacks will be much reduced going forward, I think. FISV was buying back more stock than its FCF, growing debt to do so, total debt is $30BN and leverage is over their target 2.5X, they will have higher capex and lower FCF going forward. Classic case of former CEO/CFO squandering …

I believe that iGaming have been punished too much relative to their actual fundamentals. Betsson AB for example is trading at forward PE of 7,7 with EV/EBIT of 6. 10-15% estimated EPS growth going forward with 5% dividend. Insiders are buying and share buybacks are ongoing. There´re more companies within …

Looks more like a repricing of leverage and rate risk as Oracle front loads AI capex with thinner near term FCF and Cerner drag, so watch FCF-to-interest, net leverage, the maturity ladder, and CDS vs peers to judge crack vs cycle noise; you can find more at mr-profit com.

From superinvestor stalking to a 7-stock “tollbooth” watchlist – sanity check? Hey all, I’ve been down a deep rabbit hole recently and would love a sanity check from this sub. **TL;DR:** I started by reverse-engineering long-term successful investors (Li Lu, Guy Spier, Terry Smith, Dev Kantesaria, Chris Hohn etc.), and …

FISV is certainly interesting but the new FISV will be a much lower growth company, mid single digit revenue growth and margins no better than new guidance for this year, and they may take two years to get there, two years of very low growth with higher spending and higher …

Berkeley Group PLC Hi, Check out my writeup. I struggled (a lot!) getting to grips with the UK homebuilders so would appreciate any feedback. Be brutal! [Berkeley Group PLC - by Harshu Vyas - Contrarian Stocks](https://contrarianstocks.substack.com/p/berkeley-group-plc). Also, pasted below (without images - couldn't get them in for some reason): Berkeley …

Our Value algorithm finally selected Fiserv after ignoring its 75% crash for months In late October 2025, Fiserv (FI/FISV) experienced one of the most dramatic single-day crashes in its history, closing down 44% in a single trading session on Q3 earnings miss and guidance cut. It has now dropped 75% …

My love/hate relationship with Hamilton Beach Brands. I’ve decided to admire the company from afar-but not invest. I’m new to value investing. Just three months ago, if you asked me, I would’ve said long-term investing was pointless. I preferred looking at charts all day and holding onto trades for no …

Be aware that there are different methods people use for doing DCF calculations. Buffett doesn't use the exact same model as most academics use. For example, a lot of people here use FCF instead of calculating Owner's earnings, some use their minimum rate of return requirement as the discount rate, …

This is an idea generation post, right? Some that may be worth looking at: J - I think the whacking is overdone. Yes FCF guide was a bit weak, the PA deal is uncertain, the stock was on its highs and didn't blow away numbers or guide way up, so …

21x FCF for oil majors is not "cheap". Fairly valued at best. Your bet here if you buy these capital intensive businesses is that they will become overvalued going forward. In my opinion no tailwind currently exists to justify such bet.

Not sure if Meta still counts as a value play anymore. It’s been over a month since Meta’s Q3, and the stock dropped about 11% after earnings, from around 752 to 666. It slid a bit more mid-month, then bounced back some. Overall, it’s basically flat for the month, sitting …

The comments here are just scratching the surface. No one has taken the time to understand the leasing business, how it is funded, what are the risks to it, etc. Some get scared by the debt, others get scared by the FCF conversion, etc. No one has talked about the …

How to stay disciplined? Folks at r/ValueInvesting, I need some advice on the execution side, on how to stay disciplined. I understand the basics of value investing process - do the research, find a quality company with a real moat, project conservative FCF, and establish a clear buy range. Problem …

GME. low price. profitability trending upward. positive FCF increasing. i could see a rally with any good news

The dividend ones are all fine, IDK about buying into Coke at all time highs, current valuation has a lot of "certainty" priced in. 7% revenue growth, 8% earnings growth, 3% dividend/buyback returns. 24 P/E for reliable 11% returns seems a bit expensive but not awful the valuation could pull …

Their cash flow is fucked and there is a 1-off earnings boost. I'm a bit too lazy to figure out why but while their earnings is $3.8B, their Free Cash Flow is -$163M. So P/FCF of -136. Also their P/E is 6.3 but their forward P/E is 8.3, a 30% …

On Uber: Addressing Insurance Reserves Under Dara, UBER has reached an inflection point. Here I take a look at a recent bear argument regarding Uber's insurance reserves and 'inflated' FCF. Financial statements can be noisy and complicated, especially for businesses that engage in insurance, but if you strip remove the …

Does This 5–10 Year Growth Portfolio Look Solid? AI + Core ETFs I’m planning to reinvest part of my portfolio into a moderate risk “high growth savings” allocation. I’ve run several iterations over the past few weeks and I think this version is close to finalized. The goal is to …

Does This 5–10 Year Growth Portfolio Look Solid? AI + Core ETFs I’m planning to reinvest part of my portfolio into a moderate risk “high growth savings” allocation. I’ve run several iterations over the past few weeks and I think this version is close to finalized. The goal is to …

I pray for the day when people will start posting what the company does and the competitive advantages it has in the market, and not just P/E, forward P/E, trailing P/E, CAPEX and FCF.

>19x forward PE As often is the case, this is adjusted with the stock based compensation. This company pays more than half of their GAAP net income as stock based compensation ($55m SBC and net income is $85m), if you remove this adjustment (because that is a real cost of …

I'm sure they are a good company but I can't make the leap on its valuation. Too much speculation about the future built in. I see 56 P/E, P/FCF of -11(Free Cash Flow has been negative for 5 years), 55 Foreward P/E, 11 P/S, 8.5 Foreward P/S, P/B of 4 …

Ya know. It's fair to say that yes, ASICs are doing different things from Nvidia GPUs and CUDA. However. It is already a customer concentration risk for Nvidia that a big majority of their revenue is from 5 customers. And also that 3 of those xustomers, (AWS, google, Microsoft) are …

Because they will bear a huge amount of risk for the benefit of OpenAI. They will spend >$25b per year to build out several massive datacenters which will be leased entirely to OpenAI. If OpenAI changes plans or cannot afford to lease these, ORCL is stuck with the assets and …

lmao Intel up 10% and nobody knows why until the Apple rumor drops mid-session. Classic. So basically Ming-Chi Kuo (the leaker who's actually credible) says Apple might use Intel's 18A node to fab their low-end M chips starting 2027. Not designing chips FOR Apple like the old days—just manufacturing Apple's …

11x P/E and generating an absurdly high FCF yield. That’s the justification (from the bulls).

Thoughts on my stock picks? Hi all, I’ve been picking stocks for about 5 years now mainly as a hobby since I mostly index invest(even though the below feels like an index lol) so my research isn’t super thorough on each pick. Hoping some of them will be a refreshing …

Is Cigna Stock Undervalued? I recently opened a position in Cigna at around $260 and I still think there could be a value opportunity here. Here is some of my personal analysis (some numbers may be slightly off as I made these calculations last week): Market Cap: $69.75B Revenue Q3 …

Seems like it's priced like it's going to have a CAGR of 15% for the next 15 years, which translates to a 7x growth on income/FCF. If you think it can go even bigger then buy it.

NerdWallet ($NRDS) is so overlooked it disgusts me After doing some DD on NRDS, I’m extremely surprised it isn’t talked about more. So, I want to lay out a fundamentals-led case on why NerdWallet is one of the most overlooked small caps out right now. This post will explain the …

Fiserv thesis Following on from many previous posts I want to hear the flaws in my analysis and if I am missing anything large. FI has two segments worth 50 percent each the merchant business and the financial solutions segment. The recent EPS miss and growth downgrade have largely been …

Pinterest is #1. Not sure if it counts as “tech”. It keeps growing and unlike Reddit, Facebook, and Tiktok, it’s a social media site that people go to with the intention of spending money, making it a very desirable place to advertise. I have it worth $65/share, making it over …

Do you not have a capex line in your DCF? The best way to do this is to build a 3-statement model and link it to your DCF. It would increase Net Debt but also decrease FCF in whatever years they are spending it

Built a Wordle for Wall Street, but I need help with what financial metrics to use as hints Hey everyone, I built Wallstreetle to learn about a new stock everyday and potentially identify stocks with underated value. It is a simple daily guessing game, but I want the financial hints …

On one hand people were shitting on Apple for not participating in the cap ex race. On the other they were questioning what all the cap ex was even for. At some point that was going to be reconciled. No reason to double efforts when your business partner, GOOG, is …

Mips AB (Helmet security tech) - a potential value investment? I took an interest in this company purely because I googled it out of curiosity, since I own a Helmet with its logo on it. I also remembered that, when seeking a helmet, every salesman advised me to choose one …

Very interesting one. Ignoring the market sentiment, the business just grows like clockwork. Revenue growing in 10% range, FCF growing in very well as well. Lot of buybacks, lot of return on capital. It's just a consistent grower. Is it growing very fast? I don't think so. I'd expect that …

\>5 Year g: 6% That cant be possible. Compared to FY21 its top line grows 3.78% per yr and its operating income and operating cash flow is declining. Although my data (stockanalysis.com) only goes back that far but it does not look like its growing *at all* if not shrinking …

Growth is simple, invest until growth starts to slow or margins start to slip. Value is easy as well, find the highest FCF yield stock that will still exist in its current form 10 years from now.

My thoughts: 1. Trim Google. I have them priced at about 40x owners earnings (52x FCF). Companies very rarely justify that valuation. However, Google is one of the best businesses in the world, so I would still want exposure. 2. Hold Amazon. I think it is reasonably priced and a …

I’m long ~450 shares at ~$88 per share. I’m underwriting $704 million of TTM free cash flow (net of a $90 million reduction to account for tariffs). Based on the $633 million of net share repurchases over the last year that is a 14% buyback yield. At current prices, you …

**P/E** < 15 I wouldn't necessarily filter based on PE this low. There are lots of great and undervalued companies at even higher PE. Also PE can sometimes be temporarily higher due to accounting and this screener would filter that out. If including PE then I would go for maybe …

Screener Settings Are those screener settings good for finding undervalued stocks (long term), or will I run into value traps/get bad results? * **P/E** < 15 * **ROE (TTM)** \> 10% * **Market Cap** \> 10B USD * **P/B** < 2 * **Beta (5Y)** < 1.2 * **EV / Free …

Clear analysis. However, I believe that when analyzing hyperscalers, one should place significantly more emphasis on P/FCF. At present, many of the companies are taking advantage of the fact that they invest heavily in CAPEX and extend the investments in GPUs beyond their economically justified lifespan in order to boost …

Screener Settings Are those screener settings good for finding undervalued stocks (long term), or will I run into value traps/get bad results? * **P/E** < 15 * **ROE (TTM)** \> 10% * **Market Cap** \> 10B USD * **P/B** < 2 * **Beta (5Y)** < 1.2 * **EV / Free …

A FW PE of 7 😂 Why is this company trading at such a low valuation? I ran numbers for 10 years at 0% growth, 15% FCF margin and 25% EBIDTA margin, discount rate 12% I get 41-52 % undervalued. It's insane I want to ask OP is there a …

My $400 price objective for Broadcom is based on 37x CY26E P/E, at the upper end of its 10x-38x historical range, still in-line with 1x-2x PEG framework for high-growth compute vendors, and justified given double-digit EPS growth and best-in-semis profitability, FCF generation, and returns.

I feel fine with my ~$50k of PYPL at a ~$72/share cost basis. As long as revenue, users, and FCF continued to slowly trend up and they continue to repurchase shares with essentially all of their FCF then a low-mid double digit return is very easy to solve for over …

NOOO!!! $NVO DOWN 10% IN A DAY Oh. Sorry I misread.. that was 2 days ago.. now it’s back at the same level as last week. Let’s be real anyone thinking that Novo is not getting out of this slump eventually is too emotional: - cash cow with massive consistent …

Why is your WACC 12%? Did you actually calculate it? It seems high for such a large company. Also 5% terminal growth is very high and why is it the same as your stage 1 growth rate? I would assume the market has a much higher stage 1 growth rate. …

Am I making a mistake here TSM DCF..? I was running some numbers for TSM and what % growth was priced in.. I got **fair value** when I took the following assumptions- 1. revenue g **31%** 2. discount rate 12% 3. terminal g 5% 4. EBIDTA multilple 15 5. FCF …

This reads like the classic mature-hardware playbook: cut heads, talk about "efficiency," guide EPS a bit lower than the Street, and hope multiple compression does not get worse. A few things jump out: First, if they are cutting 4k-6k jobs on a base of roughly 50-60k employees, that is high …

Can Gambling.com (GAMB) sustainably defend and grow its cash-generating marketing & data platform despite structural dependence on Google traffic and rising gambling regulation or is today’s strong FCF only transient?

Makes the bear argument about them massaging the numbers look a bit less likely, especially if the CEO (and other management) is willing to drop 2 million of his own money on this "dying business." Still some issues with the business that we'll see how they handle over time, but …

As did I. Why would I hold GOOGL at a P/(FCF - SBC) ratio of 78? GOOGL has had more positive surprises than almost any large cap stock this year and everyone loves it now. I made my money and sold it because there is far more value to be …

BBWI is looking interesting as a value play at PE ~5. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBWI) has taken a huge dumping in the last few months. Topline was not bad but a big miss on operating earnings. However the market may have overreacted with PE of <6. FCF yield is …

Earnings/FCF quality of Zoom is rapidly improving In 2023, the company earned $100mm profit and paid $1.2B in stock comp. As of the L12M just reported, net income was $1.6B and stock comp was down to $800mm. This means OCF has gone from 90% stock comp to 66% net income. …

It's crazy how this was on no one's radar practically. I immediately thought of it after GAP and ROSS beat last week and noticed the p/e ratio. They were unfairly punished for the decline in FCF earlier this year.

Kohl's is an interesting situation. This was a legitimate deep value stock (5-star rated by Morningstar) with still positive FCF that somehow turned into a short squeeze play. That being said, I'm not interested in fighting for bananas with a bunch of apes.

I don't see how Ubisoft is worth owning right now. They have no FCF. If they live up to their guidance it looks like around 2027 it may actually be worth buying. However, even then, TTWO or other stocks are likely better.

Yes, especially after owning a biz. There are usually a few things that will drive value creation over time (growth in FCF per share or EPS). Worry about those, ignore everything else, it is noise

Im continually increasing my position. Their P/FCF is 20 and their Foreward P/E is also 20. The P/E of 10 is a one time accounting thing. But still 20 P/E 20 P/FCF for a company growing revenues 28% and earnings 68% is crazy. I don't believe self driving will hurt …

ANF Q3 Beat: GAP valuation adds 50% | 20% float short I have posted about ANF before ([Q1 DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/comments/1kxka8w/update_anf_100_133_after_baking_in_a_recession/)). They have an incredible leadership team that meets their various customers in the context of their lives; their omnichannel approach is unique for Abercrombie vs Hollister and their disciplined capital approach …

a simple way to judge whether a stock is a real long-term investment is to look at three things: (i) unit economics, (ii) durability and (iii) valuation. I like to think about it this way *(it’s a mix of Buffett, Lynch, and Damodaran 😬😬):* **1. Unit Economics (Quality)** \> Start …

How do you know if a stock is worth a long-term investment? I am looking for a framework to use to showcase bear/base/bull fan charts, show "sources of return", ROIC vs WACC with reinvestment rate, and pre-share FCF to account for dilution. What metrics are a must-have, or is there …

MSFT’s pullback looks like a buy if you can wait 12–24 months; it’s capex timing vs revenue, not a broken story. What I watch: Azure constant-currency growth and how many points are from AI, Commercial bookings/RPO, Copilot paid attach/ARPU, and capex vs gross margin trajectory. Catalysts: Copilot upsell into E3/E5, …

I'd point out that Free Cash Flow less Stock Based Comp (which is a sort of "owner earnings" since stock that is issued for employees and has to be bought back doesn't generate value for shareholders) has peaked in 2021. "Ordinary" FCF/share is also down since the crash in March, …

"SU. Suncor. Extracts and refines oil from Canadian oil sands. P/FCF is 9.4. I'm holding in case there's a 2022 scenario, with commodities and wage inflation spiking." Sooo.... gambling. Truly a value approach

Here's my portfolio NHC 36.1%, PSMT 12.9%, LTC 12.1%, AWK 9.5%, SU 9.2%, GLD 20.2% I'm bullish on skilled nursing and senior housing: it's about half of total portfolio. Demand growth should really pick up in the next few years as the first baby boomers turn 80. NHC: National Healthcare. …

Can't believe my eyes.. $TDOC - price/sales 0.5, and FCF at juicy 20%! Saw a tiny insider volume today, and wondering why the insider isn't buying more? 🤔

BRKB is essentially the best actively managed fund with a 0% expense ratio and a lot of very stable businesses it outright owns and is basically perpetually undervalued. Googl was undervalued compared to its FCF and projected FCF, but is now a speculation play at this point and overvalued on …

They have negative P/E (-0.09 in 2025 Q3 , -0.35 Q1-Q3) because they don't make money , they have negative FCF. Imagine putting your money into CRSR after reading this regard shit.

r/ValueInvesting – Why I Just Put ~25% of My Personal Portfolio into UIPath (PATH) – My Thesis & Math (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE) NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE – I’m just a random internet value nerd sharing my own thinking. Do your own research and never invest money you can’t afford to lose. …

This new total debt per company is nothing relative to their FCF or EV. There is a large appetite for it by investors. These guys have not optimized their WACC to have a higher debt to income ratio, which would be way more common for firms outside of tech. I …

Bunch of random hate going around: ORCL has specific integration with database hand holding inside of Azure data centers mitigating competition friction on top of backing up 27 European Union countries, the US, AUS, UK, etc are also utilizing them for data Sovereignty. They have decreased FCF (Still like +20B) …

Circular investments and partnerships are happening at full speed... It’s a closed loop among the winners, where everyone is a customer, supplier and investor *at the same time (!!!)*. That inflates reported profits and creates future fragility. the same goes for extending GPU useful life from 3 to 6 years: …

Only worried about META and ORCL. Others have solid FCF and balance sheets.

Google has 50b FCF a year after 90b Capex, 70b buy backs 15b dividends, 30b acquisition and 175b in opex cash flow. They are fine lol. So that while having 100b on cash.

If you must buy *Growth at Any Price*, at least try to buy when the FCF Yield is above 3.7%. Currently Alphabet is the only Big Growth stock that cheap. Amazon, IMHO, is still too aligned with broke American shoppers to deserve to trade at the current ~2.5%. And AWS, …

Amazon's EV/FCF is less than Google's.

RYCEY: The Dip You’ve Been Praying For – Rolls-Royce Just Gift-Wrapped an Early Black Friday 16% Discount and Nobody Noticed 🚀🚀🚀 ⚠️ In full transparency: I own a ton of $RYCEY and I’m actively buying this dip. This is not financial advice, just highlighting what I genuinely believe is a …

What's your opinion on Euroseas? I was earlier checking on this subreddit in which a guy was telling to check out smallcaps in order to find real value and real opportunities, since I was bored I started checking out some smallcaps, and I found Euroseas (ESEA), quickly went to Finviz …

His entire argument is 1. circular financing 2. depreciation 80% of the industry doesn’t use circular financing & it’s perfectly valid to use 5-year depreciation cycles. Depreciation is also a non cash expense anyway so it doesn’t affect FCF. He’s wrong just like most of the time.

I just finished analyzing it. Don’t fall for its low PE. Look at their yearly revenue over last 10 years. Check out their FCF over the 10 years. It’s all over the place. There is no consistency. Even their dividend is not guaranteed. They have a variable dividend meaning they …

Thanks. Appreciate your views on this. I am someone kn the other side, holding LULU (it's almost 10% of my portfolio). Yes competition is fierce. And yes some of LULUs problems are self inflicted - quality and newsness. And then there are issues that are external to them - tarrifs …

The thing with multiples is that they reflect the future expectations for a company's earnings/revenue/FCF. So Molina trading at \~8x earnings and \~0.2x revenue looks attractive, but that's really the market saying that further down the line they expect earnings and/or revenue to fall and prop the multiples back up …

just look at the FCF/share growth of meta and google, and compare it with Constellation Software

When it comes to the Mag 7 it pays to follow the 4% rule. Only buy when the FCF Yield is north of 4% (and sell when it falls below 2.5%).

I used to follow when it was part of L Brands and it came up on my screen again after earnings. I bought hand over fist. 5% yield to wait until the market realizes that P/E < 5 for a company with strong FCF is stupid. The brand has tremendous …

Nvidia will probably lose a lot of its marketshare in the future. ADM is growing and now Qualcomm making chips. And theres the china risk which could at any moment show up with cheaper ai chips.. I would not bet on nvidia at this point. The current valuation expects nvidia …

DLOCAL the best opportunity in november 2025 # Rapport de Recherche d'Investissement : DLocal Ltd - Class A (DLO) [https://gemini.google.com/share/6748b225bd00](https://gemini.google.com/share/6748b225bd00) ( Lien de l'infographie ) Date : 21 Novembre 2025 Sujet : Analyse d'Investissement de DLocal Ltd (DLO) Ticker : NASDAQ : DLO Secteur : Technologie / Services Financiers / …

Are you sure it’s trading at 30X fcf? I’m getting something closer to 45X. L9M FCF is around 1.1 BN v a ~70BN mcap.

30,x FCF lmao

Ferrari (RACE) is starting to get into buyable (even value) territory This company never traded cheap given its pricing power and brand name dominance. It’s literally what tesla claimed to be but never became. (Car company with software company like margins) As of today, it’s trading around 30x FCF. It’s …

Why are people still making this mistake? Der "fundamentals.....", right, because this is a fundamentally driven market.... PayPal is dead. What moat do they even have? All their FCF is evaporating and any buy backs, which I've commented on before, are absorbed by the new management compensation packages. Oh, "but …

Single digit FCF yields can go suck a lemon.

Would this be considered a value stock or value trap ? Curious to have your opinion on **Zeiss Meditec AG (AFX).** This has been beaten for almost 5 years straight, and reached a new low at around 42e. **Business**: Renowned ophthalmology (eye surgery lasers) and microsurgery expert. I myself wear …

1) also Quality can crash 50% 2) FCF Yield + Dividend Yield = margin of safety 3) dont buy stocks that get cheaper..wait for little positive sentiment

So let me get the argument right: NVIDIA is spitting off enormous FCF. It's options are put that cash in investments, use it to acquire, or use it to invest back in the business in the form of R&D/Sales/Marketing/Product OR buying back portions of the business at what it views …

Opinions about Deckers Outdoor?? I was analyzing $DECK and found out that atleast in the financial statements Deckers is an amazing company, with a ROIC/WACC of +2.8, has a good FCF Margin, +15%, and has been leaving the debt in the recent years, has crecent revenues and margins. In the …

Why does everyone only look at P/E? You need to account for capex and share-based compensation (SBC). The market clearly doesn't think returns on incremental capital will be good. FCF: 44.841B SBC: 18.799B P/(FCF - SBC) = 57

Their opportunity to grow in many Ex US markets and to add new categories like events (which are bringing many net new users to the platform) means Abnb will compound for a long time - in a capital light way. It’s great they are buying in so many shares here …

Your way to 3x your money, slowly Lets talk about GAMB stock. I know, I know 4.64 stock is not really a penny stock, but 162m market cap is as good as it gets for small cap. I could do realy good DD writup with AI, but this time please …

Shouldn't you be looking at FCF? Capex is the highest out of any of the Mag7 as a % of sales. The reason the stock is selling off is the market doesn't know if the capex will be a good use of cash flow...

Why I ultimately passed on GSL Been doing a deep dive on GSL and thought I’d share where I landed, because it’s a bit counterintuitive. Short version: I like the company. I like the management. I don’t like the forward returns enough to buy the stock here. GSL doesn’t run …

Really nice. Glanced over some, among which NBIS. Why does NBIS have a moat? everything they do can be done by hyperscalers themselves, which they will, if NBIS starts hiking prices. So imo they have zero moat at all and are only riding the current (quite unsustainable) hyperscaler CAPEX funded …

This looks like a leverage time bomb, and the CDS spike is the tell. If OP’s numbers are close, $80B/yr capex vs Oracle’s historical FCF means they’re leaning on debt just as spreads blow out. When CDS doubles, I’ve usually seen management cut capex within 1–2 quarters and push delivery …

It's a low margin business growing 5-8% a year that is trading at 50x FCF. At some point it will come down a lot more unless you expect permanent multiple expansion.

Short squeezes are hard to play when you don't have live information. 20% of it is skill, 30% research, and 50% luck (arbitrary numbers, but shorting is arbitrary af). Even if its SI's 300%, chances are they'll trade out of it in the dark pools. This hype will make ya'll …

I have a substantial long position. Margins and returns on capital are phenomenal, revenues have grown by 5x over the past 8 years (even with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that hammered the travel industry particularly hard), and enterprise value is around 20x TTM FCF (net of SBC), which is not very …

Thanks for the write up. I have a meaningful position in the stock so am obviously biased. Between the attractive FCF (ex-SBC) / EV and a 5-10% long term growth rate (without incremental capital investments), the business is priced for 10-15% long term returns, imo. But that doesn’t suggest very …

OP - I read your write up several months ago, which got me interested in the stock. I started to nibble at $7 after doing my own DD, but I have since loaded up after listening to Q3 earnings live and the subsequent overreaction. I am up to 20k shares …

ORCL is shit, fundamental doesn't matter until it does, well it's the only hyper scaler that has negative FCF, that explains the massive pull back. Market is not as regarded as we thought. But 110P is also regarded :))

PayPal is spending money on AI like crazy! They'll be one of the biggest losers and all their FCF will get absorbed.

I guess the “bullish” argument on AI is that it is being funded by tech companies w/ strong FCF fundamentals vs the 2000s. For most institutional investors it is hard not to participate since you aren’t quite sure whether thus AI craze is a fad. So what those guys do …

Totally agree with you. Adobe looks like a great value right now. They just keep chugging along growing FCF.... But in low double digits. Which makes me a tad hesitant.

At \~$22, the stock is trading around 6× earnings with a mid-teens free cash flow yield. For a business generating roughly $750M+ in annual FCF and maintaining \~44% gross margins, that’s cheap in this market. The debt profile is manageable. Interest is covered about 5× and maturities are staggered. Recent …

Oh my List would be long... I just share these once that are currently in my portfolio. However there are so many great companies out there that grow their FCF and are also in a niche. Pinetree, Vitalhub, Greggs, Tecnoglass, Interparfums, StoneX, Cava, MakeMyTrip, IES Holdings (one of my favs), …

It looks like the private equity sponsors did a leveraged recapitalization in 2024 right before IPO, giving themselves a handsome dividend of $900 million, before dumping off the rest to the public at a valuation of 17-18X EV/EBITDA. Seems like a typical PE story - leverage the crap out of …

We just launched an AI strategy creator at Accountable Finance. It allows you to create quantitative investment strategies using whatever metrics you are interested in. Main difference from most screeners mentioned here: we use ranking equations instead of binary filters. You rank stocks by multiple factors combined (P/E + FCF …

Back of napkin math: NVDAs no growth value is current net income (being generous by not using FCF) divided by a 10.5% discount rate = ~820B. Current MC is 4.55T, that means the market is currently valuing NVDAs growth prospects at ~3.7T. That’s higher than the current MC of GOOG, …

Already a GAMB bagholder, looking to add more bags I provided a write-up on GAMB around $8 per share and felt quite confident the valuation gave some support to the downside. Welp, fast forward like 2 months later and the share price has seen nothing but absolute carnage. Earnings came …

Revenue has been on a decline since middle of 2022 (declining 4.5% CAGR since then). FCF even worse, 10% CAGR decline since 2021. Do you know why? Do you think the trend will change? If revenue/FCF decline continues it is way too overvalued even now. Also 6 month is not …

How does this make sense? Has to be one of the most undervalued stocks out there. $ZIM Alright guys. I’ve been accumulating into this little gem called Zim Integrated Shipping Services, a logistics and transportation company based out of Israel. And its time for me to divulge. The stock has …

I simply only invest in opportunities that are patently obvious. If it's some sort of edge case or something that 1 discreet event could impact the whole thesis, then it's not worth further investigation. It's not like you \*have\* to swing at every stock you research or even spend time …

Not weird. Berkshire adding Google is just them doing what they’ve always done: buying dominant money printers at a reasonable valuation. Alphabet is basically a tollbooth on global internet attention with insane FCF and optionality (AI, cloud, YouTube). It fits the modern Buffett playbook. The Gates Foundation selling Microsoft is …

Levered FCF is generally the closest to Damodaran’s free cash flow to equity (FCFE) since it’s after interest and debt repayments. But keep in mind that different sites calculate these metrics differently, so always check that twice FCFE = Net Income + Depreciation and Amortization – CapEx – Working Capital …

My 5 minute research: They're operating at a loss due to "impairment of capital assets", which doesn't affect cash flow so they're still positive there. Their dividend yield is really high, so they don't seem to know what to do with the surplus cash they do have, so most of …

Why such a low discount rate of 7%? The market returns 10%. And the 11 percent thereon seems to have incorrectly imputed capital distribution (div, buyback) into returns. Just glancing at your assumptions, this is a 3% grower for 10 years, then 1% to eternity. Why would it have a …

GOOG has been a steal for the last year, and I loaded up big time. I would not look at the sales multiple, since this one has basically no meaning for a company like Alphabet. The FCF is impacted by the massive CapEx on AI, and these will leave their …

Buffet and GOOG Seeing the recent news involving the recent purchase of GOOG by Berkshire, I thought to myself how look at overpriced or underpriced the company was. Overall, GOOG is a killer business but not a bargain bin stock: you’re paying fat multiples (around 9.5× sales, high-20s P/E, and …

Levered Free cash flow vs FCF in stock analysis website Hello everyone, I was just watching Ashwath Damodaran’s free cash flow to equity lectures and I think I got that Free cash flow to equity is the way we value stocks. On the Stock Analysis website, I saw three terms …

It's not the equation that's the difficult part. It's the inputs. For DCF methods, you would like to know enough about the company and the industry to discern what growth rate you think is reasonable and what discount rate you want to use. If you can't come up with the …

Welcome to doodoo land | $VOYG puts I think I had $35K left at some point on that position (-60%) But now it’s gaining traction Bear thesis rapidly : - CEO is a noob (and a cheater per his Wikipedia page) - Conglomerate of unscalable small startups, poised to fail …

Qualys. Stupidly cheap and growing double-digits y/y. - Forward PE 19 - P/FCF 19 - FCF CAGR 15% last 3y - ROIC 31% - Gross margin 84% (GAAP) - Net margin 30% (GAAP) - Buying back cheap shares - Zero debt(!!) And best thing is zero hype as you can …

AI isn't a bubble, and it is very easy to argue. AI easily expands operative margins from software business lines. Also, the next following companies I'll list, have a >29% ROIC (that's simply amazing and means that earns ~$1,3 for each $ invested on themselves) and they are financing AI …

I would be surprised if this was a Buffett pick. Apple made sense because of its entrenched position, mature product cycles, huge FCF, and commitment to buybacks. Alphabet is slowing, maybe soon even reversing, their net buybacks to fund multi-year growth capital expenditures. That's great if you believe in the …

Fortinet. Of the big 4 pure plays (PANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZS, maybe including NET if you're comfortable with 40x sales), Fortinet checks the most boxes *and* trades at the lowest price. -Founder owned, high insider ownership -Highest gross margins -Highest operating margins -Highest FCF margins after subtracting SBC -Lowest SBC …

For me it came down to fortinet and Palo Alto. $ftnt is intriguing at current price and FCF however in my experience Palo Alto is still gold standard in this area and most enterprises rely on it so I ultimately choose Palo Alto set it and forget it

GPN - Global Payment Network seems attractive I started following this not very long ago. Around the price of $84 and now it has come down to $74... This look like an attractive buy. The recent earnings also was a beat mostly. with EPS increasing by around 12% YoY. Revenue …

On a reverse DCF with a 30% FCF margin, MELI is priced for 1.5% revenue growth annually over the next 10 years (they've reported 31% and 34% the past two years). Drop FCF margin expectation to 25% and it's 4%. Over the past 10 years, their FCF margin is 26%. …

Thanks for the writeup, it's very informative. In your thesis what's the CAGR over the next 5-10 years? What I see in their revenue estimates for the next year on Yahoo finance is a contraction of about -15%. If they stay put the next 5 years, that is if they …