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Main point: concentration works if you size it right and pre‑write your sell rules. I hold AAPL and AXP, skip BAC because I don’t want that much rate/credit cyclicality. My rules: cap any single name at 12–15%, rebalance on a ±25% drift, and pre‑plan trims if two key metrics break …
Tesla valuation is based on expectations of robotaxi and Optimus. People are investing in Tesla based on future growth, not SBC that happened 5 years ago. Over the TTM share count went up .83% In 2024 share count went up .37% In 2023 Share count went up .29% In 2022 …
Michael Burry Calls Out Tesla Stating They Are "Ridiculously Overvalued" “Big Short” investor Michael Burry criticized Tesla in his latest Substack newsletter, calling the electric-vehicle maker “ridiculously overvalued” and pointing to years of shareholder dilution as a central concern. Burry argued that Tesla’s valuation remains disconnected from its fundamentals and …
On Uber: Addressing Insurance Reserves Under Dara, UBER has reached an inflection point. Here I take a look at a recent bear argument regarding Uber's insurance reserves and 'inflated' FCF. Financial statements can be noisy and complicated, especially for businesses that engage in insurance, but if you strip remove the …
Stock-based, non-cash compensation is a real cost to shareholders. As has been pointed out, this company is diluting shareholders at almost 2% a year and reported earnings are higher than they would be otherwise. This does not mean never invest in SBC companies, but you need to be aware of …
>19x forward PE As often is the case, this is adjusted with the stock based compensation. This company pays more than half of their GAAP net income as stock based compensation ($55m SBC and net income is $85m), if you remove this adjustment (because that is a real cost of …
Burry is crying like a baby lately. I ve read what he wrote about depreciation and SBC. SBC was completely stupid and I was suprised that he has this low level, everytime think that he just had a lucky shot.
With Paypal you need to actually go by market cap to gauge its cheapness because of their buybacks. The last time it was cheaper than this was in June 2017 when it was $50 a share. Its now at $62 a share but under $60 billion market cap. The risk …
Parallel/Analogue of Dot Com bubble, fed rat cuts, melting up, and thesis for big pharma and managed care (didn't happen, I ran out of space). For those who lack reading comprehension, I’m saying that the market will melt up, not crash immediately. Before I start, I just want to acknowledge …
How much stock based compensation do they have? I think I looked into this stock and SBC was crazy
As did I. Why would I hold GOOGL at a P/(FCF - SBC) ratio of 78? GOOGL has had more positive surprises than almost any large cap stock this year and everyone loves it now. I made my money and sold it because there is far more value to be …
I think Burry claims is simply NVDA grants the shares as Stock-based compensation recorded in balance sheet using date of issuance price say 8$/share in 2018, while NVDA later has to buy it back at 100$+/share with share repurchase from 2018 till 2025. The SBC is about 20B while the …
Rezolve AI (RZLV) is the next 100 bagger In the latest interim report RZLV showed c. 400% revenue growth and c. 95% gross margin. 2025 guidance of $150m ARR and 2026 guidance $500m ARR. If management scales the business with above-mentioned margins and hits ARR guidances, buckle up to see …
I mean SBC expenditures are obviously super high following the 10x+ - this will normalize as pre 2023 grants fully vest and drop back down to understandable levels.
So they bought back stock to offset SBC and that didn’t help shareholders?
Michael Burry Says Nvidia Spent $112.5 Billion On Buybacks Adding 'Zero' Shareholder Value Famed “Big Short,” investor Michael Burry, known for his prescient bet against the housing market, has publicly questioned Nvidia Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) capital allocation strategy, asserting that the tech giant’s $112.5 billion spent on stock buybacks since 2018 …
Why does everyone only look at P/E? You need to account for capex and share-based compensation (SBC). The market clearly doesn't think returns on incremental capital will be good. FCF: 44.841B SBC: 18.799B P/(FCF - SBC) = 57
I have a substantial long position. Margins and returns on capital are phenomenal, revenues have grown by 5x over the past 8 years (even with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that hammered the travel industry particularly hard), and enterprise value is around 20x TTM FCF (net of SBC), which is not very …
Thanks for the write up. I have a meaningful position in the stock so am obviously biased. Between the attractive FCF (ex-SBC) / EV and a 5-10% long term growth rate (without incremental capital investments), the business is priced for 10-15% long term returns, imo. But that doesn’t suggest very …
Airbnb - New Age Value Stock? I’m thinking through some cash flow assumptions about Airbnb and I feel like the stock is very appealing margin of safety wise. I get how everyone on reddit hates it but that doesn’t reflect the quality of the underlying business financially. The platform continues …
Already a GAMB bagholder, looking to add more bags I provided a write-up on GAMB around $8 per share and felt quite confident the valuation gave some support to the downside. Welp, fast forward like 2 months later and the share price has seen nothing but absolute carnage. Earnings came …
Fortinet. Of the big 4 pure plays (PANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZS, maybe including NET if you're comfortable with 40x sales), Fortinet checks the most boxes *and* trades at the lowest price. -Founder owned, high insider ownership -Highest gross margins -Highest operating margins -Highest FCF margins after subtracting SBC -Lowest SBC …
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) y Fortinet (FTNT). Son las unicas que generan beneficios neto y tienen poco SBC
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Total Off-Exchange Volume: 18368
Values over 50% Short often indicate hidden bearish pressure from institutions.
🏆 Master Buzz Score: 2/15
Capitol Trades
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Institutional Holdings (Whales)
| Institution | Shares | Value | % Held | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 271,776 | $970240 | 0.0026% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 190,379 | $679653 | 0.0019% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Vanguard Group Inc | 81,100 | $289526 | 0.0008% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Northern Trust Corporation | 58,861 | $210133 | 0.0006% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| SBI Securities Co., Ltd. | 52,469 | $187314 | 0.0005% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Millennium Management Llc | 50,461 | $180145 | 0.0005% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| State Street Corporation | 31,039 | $110809 | 0.0003% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 18,174 | $64881 | 0.0002% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| New York State Common Retirement Fund | 17,000 | $60689 | 0.0002% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 14,267 | $50933 | 0.0001% | Sep 30, 2025 |

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